The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced in a Federal Register notice that it would review the use of economy-wide models to evaluate the social costs, benefits and economic effects associated with its air regulations. The EPA also said it would seek advice from the independent Science Advisory Board on economy-wide modeling.

“They seem to be hedging their bets that while they’re not putting out in this notice what the answer is, they’re leaving open the possibility that whatever the SAB finds, they still have some concerns,” said Mike McDonough, an environmental partner in Pillsbury’s Los Angeles office. “They seem to be trying to play both sides of the fence.”

The notice signifies the EPA's determination to ensure that macroeconomic evaluations of its regulations — and the decision to use them — are done on its own terms, McDonough explained.

“If they engage in that research and document it, they get to drive the bus,” McDonough commented. “And should there be a challenge, they can always say to the court, ‘We did what we were supposed to do. We met the bare minimum of the Clean Air Act, and now the court has to defer to our discretion and allow us to interpret what the Clean Air Act means.’”

“Ultimately, I think for a while now, EPA has been trying to figure out an economy-wide modeling approach that helps get the result that it wants, which is more regulation and not to derail greenhouse gas regulations,” McDonough added. “Rest assured, EPA has a preferred answer in mind and is setting this notice up to allow it to claim victory in either case.”