In its draft strategic plan, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said that it anticipates a substantial reduction in enforcement presence over the next five years. The 2014-2018 plan forecasts the conclusion of 10,000 civil enforcement cases, nearly half as many as the cases forecasted in the 2011-2015 plan.

Matthew Morrison, a Washington, D.C.-based partner in Pillsbury’s environmental law practice, noted that he was struck by the strategic plan’s “huge draconian drops.”

Former associate director of the Air Enforcement Division of EPA’s Office of Civil Enforcement, Morrison commented that the plan does not seem sensible. “This is not taking a scalpel to the agency's enforcement. This is taking an ax to it.”

The plan also includes less ambitious goals for toxic and pesticide pollutant treatment, falling from a 19 million pound goal three years ago to 11 million pounds for the next five years.

Morrison suggested that the figures reveal that the agency is bracing for lower funding and will adjust enforcement accordingly. “This is the first time I've really seen the agency recognize the cold reality of the cuts they are facing in their budget.”

The draft plan's huge enforcement cuts still won't provide much benefit to anyone, Morrison said, especially for businesses seeking regulatory certainty.

“The EPA may be lower on ammunition, but the enforcement threat is still very real,” he explained. “For companies that always do the right thing and invest in compliance, they are increasingly disadvantaged to competitors who cut corners.”