Alert
Alert
By James Campbell,
06.24.16
The United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union. The vote is not legally binding but Prime Minister David Cameron has already acknowledged that the will of the people must be followed. We consider the key preliminary questions.
What now?
Once Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union is invoked, the UK has up to two years to exit the EU as, at that point, the EU Treaties will cease to apply to the UK.
For the moment the UK remains in the EU but the influence of the UK on European affairs will already be diminished as the rest of Europe decides how to respond to the Leave vote. Inevitably this will lead to a period of uncertainty as the exit is negotiated and the UK Government, however comprised, determines what relationship the UK is to have with the EU and, by extension, the 53 countries with which the EU has free trade agreements. In electing to leave the EU the British public has decided that something else is better than membership of the EU. The first question to be answered by the UK Government must be: what is that something else?
What are the Brexit models?
The Brexit question was simply “Remain or Leave?”. There are no certainties as to what the “Leave” model looks like. The most commonly discussed models for the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU are:
Each of those models, and any others that may be proposed in the coming months, will have a different impact on the UK economy and the legal systems currently comprised within the UK.
Possible Impact on Existing Law
We will not see an immediate impact on existing law or regulation. However we can expect a staged process of repealing EU-derived legislation and replacing it with domestic UK law.
But until a decision is made on the Brexit model we will not know the extent to which existing law can and will need to be replaced or amended. For example, the Norwegian model would see the UK having to comply with EU-derived legislation. Should the Brexit model involve not joining the EEA the UK Government will need to weigh the impact of exercising the freedom to move away from EU standards against the potential impacts on UK businesses. We would however assume that the UK Government will not wish to make it difficult for UK businesses to trade with the EU, and the UK Government will want to maintain relationships with European businesses and European investors.
A consequence will be that some areas of law may be more impacted than others. For example:
The Future of the United Kingdom
With both Scotland and Northern Ireland voting overwhelmingly to remain within the EU we should expect to see pressure for referendums for those countries to leave the United Kingdom and become independent sovereign states. This is a journey that has no certain ending.
Download: Brexit: What Now?