Alert 01.28.26
Alert
02.17.26
In recent weeks, the Trump administration has announced significant actions aimed at securing critical mineral supply chains. These actions include outcomes from the U.S. State Department’s Critical Minerals Ministerial, which include the launch of a new plurilateral initiative, Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE), as well as the signing of bilateral Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) with 11 countries and an Action Plan between the United States and Mexico. These actions also include the announcement of Project Vault, a new strategic reserve for critical minerals supported by a $10 billion loan from the Export Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) (the largest loan in EXIM’s history) as well as approximately $2 billion in private capital.
Below we discuss these actions, next steps and implications for companies.
Critical Minerals Ministerial
On February 4, Secretary Rubio, joined by Vice President JD Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer, hosted the 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial, which was attended by representatives from 54 countries and the European Commission. Delegations from the following countries attended: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Cook Islands, the Czech Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, the European Commission, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Guinea, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Lithuania, Malaysia, Mexico, Mongolia, Morocco, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, the Republic of Korea, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Sweden, Thailand, the Netherlands, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, Uzbekistan, and Zambia.
This follows President Trump’s announcement of findings in connection with the investigation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (Section 232) of the national security impacts of processed critical minerals imports. As we discuss in our prior client alert here, President Trump concurred with the findings of the Department of Commerce (Commerce) that imports subject to the investigation threaten national security, citing, among other things, price volatility in critical mineral markets and a decline in critical minerals production, and directed Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to negotiate agreements or continue current negotiations to address national security threats and to consider “price floors for trade in critical minerals and other trade-restricting measures” as part of such agreements.
Toward that end, during his remarks, Vice President Vance highlighted the importance of creating competitive critical mineral markets, noting the issue of diverse/domestic investments being undermined by cheap critical minerals flooding the market and proposed “a preferential trade zone for critical minerals, protected from external disruptions through enforceable price floors,” which will entail establishing “reference prices for critical minerals at each stage of production, pricing that reflects real-world, fair-market value.” As we discuss below, additional details regarding the reference prices and implementation are currently being deliberated.
Key Outcomes from the Ministerial:
-Within 30 days, the EU and the United States will conclude an MOU, which will identify areas of cooperation to stimulate demand and diversify supply by identifying and supporting projects in the mineral supply chain, include measures to prevent supply chain disruptions, promote research and development, and share info on stockpiling.
-Japan, the EU and the United States will develop an Action Plan, which could include “exploring the development of coordinated trade policies and mechanisms, such as border-adjusted price floors, standards-based markets, price gap subsidies, or offtake-agreements.”
The Department of State’s fact sheet also outlined investments in critical mineral projects by various U.S. Government agencies, including the Department of War, EXIM, the Development Finance Corporation, and the Department of Energy. Commerce has also made investments in certain mineral projects where there is a link to semiconductors under the CHIPS and Science Act, and the U.S. Trade and Development Agency also makes investments to support early-stage critical mineral technologies and projects.
Project Vault
On February 2, President Trump announced Project Vault, a public-private partnership, which will store critical minerals in a strategic reserve intended to provide stability of supply to civilian industries in the event of a market disruption. EXIM will utilize its statutory authorities to provide loans to an independent third-party entity to facilitate transactions for Project Vault. Any of the 60 minerals on the 2025 U.S. Geological Survey’s Critical Minerals List (which we discuss here) could be included in the reserve, and the set of minerals ultimately included will be driven by Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), which will provide details regarding critical minerals to be purchased for the reserves, including forms, quantities and grades. Suppliers serving the Vault (including Hartree Partners, Mercuria Americas and Traxys) will purchase the requested material requested by OEMs on behalf of the independent entity governing the Vault. The critical minerals may be sourced from foreign sources utilizing EXIM’s authority to finance material that has offtake for the United States. If material is sourced from a country that has implemented a price floor, the material may be subject to that price floor upon purchases for the reserve for locations in the United States.
The EXIM loan and private capital will be used to fund the purchase and storage of critical minerals for the reserve, and OEMs will make long-term commitments regarding materials to be stored in the reserve and pay a commitment fee to participate. In regular course, OEMs can withdraw up to a certain quantity from the reserve as long as they replenish the material up to their agreed-upon commitment. OEMs can access material in the reserve when specific market conditions (or triggers) are met. This may include, for example, export restrictions or certain market conditions that constrain supply.
Project Vault is distinct from the National Defense Stockpile (NDS) in several respects. Among other things, the NDS is operated by the Department of War’s Defense Logistics Agency and is intended to provide a reserve to support national defense needs; by contrast, Project Vault is a public-private partnership, which is governed independently and intended to provide a reserve to support civilian needs.
Next Steps and Key Implications for Companies
The initiatives provide significant policy direction from the Administration while a number of details are subject to further negotiations. With respect to price floors, key issues include the reference price or the bases on which the price floors will be set, the initial set of minerals of focus, and implementation of price floors, and the set of countries that will agree to implement price floors. The U.S.-Mexico Action Plan, which will be implemented over 60 days (or by approximately early April 2026) may provide concrete information regarding the bases for the price floors and how they will be implemented, such as via a Minimum Import Price. Also, the pending U.S.-EU-Japan Action Plan, which, as noted above, may include “border-adjusted price floors” or other measures such as “standards-based markets, price gap subsidies, or offtake-agreements” will provide import direction regarding the path forward. Finally, the set of countries that will ultimately implement price floors or other trade-restrictive measures is to be determined. On February 13, 2025, USTR Greer hosted a virtual ministerial with G7+countries to “on a potential Agreement on Trade in Critical Minerals.”
With regard to the ongoing negotiations and Project Vault, key issues and opportunities for companies include: