What Happens if the U.S. Leaves Iran Without Reopening the Strait of Hormuz?

In peacetime, the waterway facilitates the transit of around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. Its closure has forced oil prices up to a nearly four-year high, hurting consumers and businesses worldwide.

In an interview with The Independent, Pillsbury partner Matthew Oresman said that if Trump does back out without ensuring free passage for all nations, European, Asian and Middle Eastern countries “would be left to negotiate transit agreements directly with Iran, securing safe passage by effectively paying ransom.”

He said that “the long-term impact of leaving the Strait insecure is a recipe for long-term disruption, including higher energy and commodity prices and an ever-present casus belli for future conflict.”

“The alternative, of course, would be for these countries to risk their own people and assets to destroy Iran’s military capabilities targeting the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.

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